A new calculus of peace has emerged on Israel’s northern border, according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He argued on Sunday that the war with Hezbollah has fundamentally changed the strategic variables, making peace talks with Syria a reality and a future agreement with Lebanon a distinct possibility.
The most significant change in the equation is the new government in Syria. Following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad, a pragmatic leadership has replaced an ideological one, enabling direct negotiations with Israel. A Syrian official has stated that the aim is to conclude security agreements by the end of 2025.
In Lebanon, the calculation now involves a weakened Hezbollah and an emboldened state. Israel’s continued military strikes, despite a ceasefire, are designed to further degrade the militia’s power. This has created an opening for the Lebanese government, with U.S. encouragement, to finally begin the process of disarmament.
Netanyahu explained this new calculus to his ministers. “Our victories… have opened a window for a possibility that was not even imagined before,” he said. He confirmed “some progress” in the Syrian talks, a key part of this new strategic landscape.
The results of this new math are adding up. Syria is negotiating a land-for-security deal and has reportedly withdrawn heavy weapons from the border. Lebanon has committed to a plan to disarm Hezbollah in the south within three months. These actions reflect a recognition of the new realities on the ground.